Friday morning, Wall Street’s eyes will collectively be fixated on the April employment report due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
After a disappointing March number, the April jobs report could provide some clarity about the timetable for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike.
Here’s a breakdown of what top economists are expecting from tomorrow’s report.
Consensus
Consensus expectations are for a total non-farm payroll growth of 230,000, private sector job growth of 225,000, and manufacturing job growth of 5,000. The national unemployment is also expected to have dipped from 5.5 percent in March to 5.4 percent in April.
Dr. Mikhail I. Melnik, Associate Professor of Economics, Kennesaw State University
Dr. Melnik’s April prediction falls short of consensus estimates. He believes that dollar strength and non-residential investment weakness that weighed on the economy in Q1 will carry over into April.
Dr. Melnik is predicting April non-farm payroll growth of 180,000 and an unchanged 5.5 percent unemployment rate.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at McGladrey
Brusuelas believes that March’s weak jobs report was an outlier produced mostly by inclement weather. “The U.S. job market probably rebounded sharply in April, with employment in the goods-producing, services, manufacturing and construction sectors all improving,” he wrote in a recent blog post.
Brusuelas is calling for non-farm payroll growth of 255,000 and a decline in unemployment rate to 5.4 percent.
Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. Chief Economist at Standard & Poor’s
Bovino believes that one critical number to watch in the report will be hourly wage growth, which has barely been above 2.0 percent year-over-year in recent months. If accelerating job growth carries over into increasing wage growth, higher prices could eventually follow, triggering a Fed rate hike sooner than expected.
Bovino is calling for non-farm payroll growth of 225,000 in April, nearly in-line with consensus estimates.
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