According to Citi analyst Willem Buiter, a global recession is now the most likely outcome for world economies in the next few years. In a new report, Buiter discussed what Citi’s Global Economics team sees on the horizon.

What Are The Chances?

Citi sees a 40 percent chance that global real GDP growth rates will decline steadily from now until 2017, resulting in a moderate recession. In addition, the firm sees a 30 percent chance that the global economy will avoid recession and maintain current growth rates, a 15 percent chance of a severe recession and financial crisis and a 15 percent chance of a global economic boom over the next couple of years.

“In our view, the probability of some kind of recession, moderate or severe, is therefore 55 percent,” Buiter explained.

Comes With The Territory

Buiter noted…

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