The end of 2015 is just around the corner, and it’s once again that time of year to start thinking about how to position portfolios for 2016. In a new report, Goldman Sachs analyst Francesco Garzerelli unveiled six top trade ideas heading into 2016.
1. Long USD vs short EUR and JPY
Goldman predicts that the Fed’s tightening cycle will be more hawkish than the markets are currently anticipating. Conversely, relative economic fragility in Europe and Japan will likely result in dovish policies and weaker currencies. Garzerelli adds that traders shouldn’t be scared or discouraged by the dollar’s prior gains.
2. Long U.S. 10-year “breakeven” inflation
Goldman initiated a long stance on the USGGBE10 Index on Nov. 10 at 1.60 percent. The firm is targeting 2.0 percent with a stop set at a close of 1.40 percent. The inflation swap market is currently pricing in expectations that headline CPI will not reach 2.0 percent until around 2020, a view which Goldman believes is overly pessimistic.
3. Long MXN and RUB/short ZAR and CLP
These two pair trades reflect several of Goldman’s key global economic themes for 2016, including external currency rebalancing, “lower for longer” oil price environment and the risk of a CNY depreciation in China.
4. Long non-commodity EM exporters vs. EM banks stocks
This trade represents…
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