In a new report, A.B. Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge discusses why China will be the main driver behind a quicker-than-expected re-balancing of the global oil market. According to Beveridge, the market is underestimating China’s 2016 crude production cuts.

“We believe that at current prices the decline in non-OPEC, non-US production will be quicker than many expect, leading to a re-balancing of the market in 2H16,” he explained.

Bernstein projects that China could cut production by 3 percent this year, reducing its output by up to 150 mbd. Consensus is currently expecting about a 0.7 percent production decline in China this year.

China is…

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