In a new report, Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson discusses the reasons why he believes Joy Global Inc. JOY 1.93% is repeating its 2015 guidance mistakes again this year. By calling for a back-end loaded 2016 for earnings and revenues, Johnson believes that Joy Global is setting itself up for multiple downward revisions later this year.

“Along these lines, considering: (1) the 85% R^2 between JOY’s revs and TSM bookings, assuming it holds, suggests F16 sales will come in at ~$2.29 bn vs. JOY’s guide of $2.5bn (using the same approach when JOY gave F15 rev guidance of $3.7bn 3/15/15, one would have modeled F15 revs at $3.0bn VS $3.2bn reported), (2) C16 AGMC is expected to fall -35% y/y, & (3) coal markets are expected to remain structurally oversupplied thru C16, we believe, similarly to C15, C16 will be defined by multiple earnings revisions lower,” Johnson explains.

In terms of value, Axiom is calling…

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