While most of the talk surrounding oil in recent years has been about how low prices can go, the International Energy Agency (IEA) believes the next major price shock in coming years could be to the upside. Slumping oil prices and a massive global crude oil supply glut have lead to historic spending and investment cuts by many of the top oil companies.

“There’s a danger as we are reaching a point where we are barely investing upstream,” said Neil Atkinson, head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets Division. “If investment doesn’t resume in 2017 and 2018, we can see a spike in oil prices as oil supply can’t meet demand.”

Atkinson noted that the global oil industry needs about $300 billion in annual investments just to maintain current production levels. Top oil companies have been focusing on shoring up their balance sheets during the downturn. ConocoPhillips COP, Chevron Corporation CVX, BP plc (ADR) BP and others have cut…

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