Overall, 2016 has been a great year for the stock market. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY 0.36% is on track to finish the year up roughly 11 percent. Traders are certainly entitled to take the last few days of the year to celebrate their 2016 wins and reflect on successes of the past year. But once the New Year fireworks go off, the slate is wiped clean. Traders must figure out whether they are going to stick with what worked in 2016 or change up their game plan in the year ahead.
Of course, traders face this same dilemma at the same time every year. Here’s a look at how things worked out in 2016 for traders who stuck with what worked in 2015 and for traders who made a year-end contrarian bet last year.
Letting It Ride
Traders who chose not to take profits and ride the momentum of 2015’s hottest stocks in 2016 fared pretty well. Here’s a breakdown of how a portfolio of the five best-performing stocks of 2015 fared in 2016:
1. Netflix, Inc. NFLX 0.56%
- 2015 Performance: +134.4 percent.
- 2016 Performance: +12.6 percent.
2. Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN 1.99%
- 2015 Performance: +117.8 percent.
- 2016 Performance: +14.8 percent.
3. Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI 0.08%
- 2015 Performance: +94.1 percent.
- 2016 Performance: -5.8 percent.
4. NVIDIA Corporation NVDA 1.34%
- 2015 Performance: +67.1 percent.
- 2016 Performance: +263.7 percent.
5. Hormel Foods Corp HRL 0.5%
- 2015 Performance: +54.5 percent.
- 2016 Performance: -10.4 percent.
Going Against The Grain
On the other hand, traders that opted to buy a basket of 2015’s worst stocks fared relatively well in 2016 as well. Here’s a look at how the five biggest 2015 laggards performed:
1. Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK 2.37%
- 2015 Performance: -76.7 percent.
- 2016 Performance: +68.6 percent.
2. CONSOL Energy Inc. CNX 1.28%
- 2015 Performance: -76.5 percent.
- 2016 Performance: +144.4 percent.
3. Southwestern Energy Company SWN 0.68%
- 2015 Performance: -73.8 percent.
- 2016 Performance: +53.4 percent.
4. Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX 1.92%
- 2015 Performance: -70.1 percent.
- 2016 Performance: +104.9 percent.
5. Fossil Group Inc FOSL 0.8%.
- 2015 Performance: -66.8 percent.
- 2016 Performance: -27.9 percent.
The Results Are In
As it turns out, buying the 2015 S&P 500 leaders and buying the laggards both made for very profitable trading strategies in 2016. Overall, the five leading stocks generated an average 2016 return of +54.9 percent. However, the laggards topped even that impressive performance by delivering an average 2016 return of +68.6 percent.
Stocks To Consider For 2017
For traders who expect a repeat performance out of the market in 2017, here are…
Click here to continue reading
Want to learn more about how to profit off the stock market? Or maybe you just want to be able to look sophisticated in front of your coworkers when they ask you what you are reading on your Kindle, and you’d prefer to tell them “Oh, I’m just reading a book about stock market analysis,” rather than the usual “Oh, I’m just looking at pics of my ex-girlfriend on Facebook.” For these reasons and more, check out my book, Beating Wall Street with Common Sense. I don’t have a degree in finance; I have a degree in neuroscience. You don’t have to predict what stocks will do if you can predict what traders will do and be one step ahead of them. I made a 400% return in the stock market over five years using only basic principles of psychology and common sense. Beating Wall Street with Common Sense is now available on Amazon, and tradingcommonsense.com is always available on your local internet!