A ‘Growth Scare’ Is Moving Markets Down, Not Political Uncertainty

With Super Tuesday now in the books, Jefferies analyst Sean Darby released a new report assessing the impact that politics has had on the jittery 2016 stock market. According to Darby, the election cycle is not responsible for market fears.

“In our view, investor positioning for a US recession and outright deflation have to be blamed for the equity market declines to date,” he explained.

Darby noted that the financial media has been drawing ties between the performance of presidential front-runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and the performance of equity markets, but Jefferies has witnessed no indication of such fears in the U.S. policy uncertainty index.

Instead, Darby suggested that the nation is now experiencing a “growth scare,” which has been triggered by weak sales numbers. A strong dollar, widening high yield spreads and very mild bank credit tightening has investors feeling “mildly cautious.”

In terms of election cycle trading, Darby added…

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