In a new report, UBS analyst Jon Rigby updated the firm’s outlook for the global oil markets, including predictions for when the market will begin to recover. According to Rigby, the market is now on course to reach a balance by 2017.

He noted that the nearly 40 percent rally in WTI since the February bottom has been dramatic, but prices have only recovered to their December 2015 levels. The current price of around $36/bbl is almost exactly in-line with the firm’s Q1 forecast. UBS is calling for $41/bbl in Q2 and $55/bbl in 2017.

“The outlook for 2017 at $55/bbl may seem high but at some stage next year markets will need to incentivize and likely begin to fret about low spare capacity,” Rigby explained.

For now, Rigby believes…

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