In a new report, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gives his cautious take on the strong February U.S. auto sales numbers released this week. According to Jonas, the amount of discounting and pull-forward financing currently in the industry is an important caveat to the stellar sales numbers.

On the surface, Ford Motor Company F 2.42% was a big winner, delivering 20.2 percent year-over-year sales growth compared to consensus estimates of +11.8 percent. Ford rival General Motors Company GM 3.05%’s 1.5 percent growth came up short of +5.0 percent consensus estimates.

Morgan Stanley is calling for SAAR of 18.2 million in 2016 and 18.9 million in 2017.

Despite the strong numbers, Jonas notes…

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