After the newest batch of MSCI data for the month of February, Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson is as bearish as ever on steel prices.
U.S. steel mill service centers recorded a 6.4 percent month-over-month decline in shipments and a 0.6 percent rise in inventories. Johnson notes that the historical average shipment decline is only 3.9 percent, while inventories have averaged a 0.2 percent decline as well.
“In short, as we have stated a number of times in the past, we believe inventory is being built in anticipation of a ‘Trump effect’ via imminent infrastructure spend and tax policy (which we do not see taking effect in 2017) against a backdrop of ‘tepid’ end-market demand,” Johnson explains.
According to Johnson, a decline in U.S. auto demand coupled with weakness in China is more than enough headwind to push steel prices lower regardless of Trump’s policies.
After speaking with an industry insider, Axiom is convinced that unless real steel demand picks up by late April, prices will begin to fall.
“With the recent gains in stocks on optimism/hope, we continue to see the shot commodity trade as one of the best ways to create alpha in 2017,” Johnson concludes.
The firm has…
Click here to continue reading
Want to learn more about how to profit off the stock market? Or maybe you just want to be able to look sophisticated in front of your coworkers when they ask you what you are reading on your Kindle, and you’d prefer to tell them “Oh, I’m just reading a book about stock market analysis,” rather than the usual “Oh, I’m just looking at pics of my ex-girlfriend on Facebook.” For these reasons and more, check out my book, Beating Wall Street with Common Sense. I don’t have a degree in finance; I have a degree in neuroscience. You don’t have to predict what stocks will do if you can predict what traders will do and be one step ahead of them. I made a 400% return in the stock market over five years using only basic principles of psychology and common sense. Beating Wall Street with Common Sense is now available on Amazon, and tradingcommonsense.com is always available on your local internet!
