No Ordinary iPhone, No Ordinary Cycle: Morgan Stanley Says Consensus Estimate On iPhone 8 Falls Short

Apple Inc. AAPL 0.36% investors are hoping the 10-year anniversary iPhone 8 will be no ordinary iPhone. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, the iPhone 8 sales cycle will be no ordinary cycle.

Bring On The Supercycle

After the firm’s recent round of checks, Morgan Stanley has raised its price target from $154 to $161 on expectations of an iPhone 8 “supercycle.”

Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating on the company, same as the average analyst rating from the Street.

However, the firm believes the consensus estimates from the Street regarding iPhone numbers underestimate the potential the expected “supercycle” could realize.

“Our upgrade analysis, which covers regions that represented 96 percent of iPhone shipments in CY16, points to base case of 260 million (top down) to 264 million (bottom up) demand during the FY18 Supercycle and implies at least 7 percent upside to current forecast of 242 million,” Huberty explained.

Morgan Stanley sees the highest demand growth in China.

Huberty said recent checks indicate that up to 50 percent of iPhone 8 supply could be OLED devices, well above the firm’s previous conservative estimates of 33 percent. Based on the higher OLED mix, Morgan Stanley has upped its average sales price (ASP) estimate for iPhone 8 from $713 to $753, well above consensus Wall Street estimates of $675.

In addition to an acceleration in iPhone demand, Morgan Stanley predicts…

Click here to continue reading

Want to learn more about how to profit off the stock market? Or maybe you just want to be able to look sophisticated in front of your coworkers when they ask you what you are reading on your Kindle, and you’d prefer to tell them “Oh, I’m just reading a book about stock market analysis,” rather than the usual “Oh, I’m just looking at pics of my ex-girlfriend on Facebook.” For these reasons and more, check out my book, Beating Wall Street with Common SenseI don’t have a degree in finance; I have a degree in neuroscience. You don’t have to predict what stocks will do if you can predict what traders will do and be one step ahead of them. I made a 400% return in the stock market over five years using only basic principles of psychology and common sense. Beating Wall Street with Common Sense is now available on Amazon, and tradingcommonsense.com is always available on your local internet!