Benzinga had the chance to speak to Oppenheimer Funds’ Chief Economist Jerry Webman this week ahead of the ENGAGE 2015 International Investment Education Symposium being held at Wayne State University starting on March 26.
Dr. Webman provided his insight on a wide range of topics in the financial world.
What Will Murder The Bull Market?
One of the topics Webman discussed is the current bull market, which had its sixth birthday earlier this month. The S&P 500 is now 300 percent higher than its highest pre-Financial Crisis peak. Benzinga asked Webman if he believes the stock market is nearing a top or if he sees more upside remaining.
Webman began his answer with a quote from German economist Rudi Dornbush: “Business cycles don’t die from old age, they’re murdered by central banks.”
Fruitful Market
Webman went on to explain, “The stock market has been up because the U.S. economy has been in good enough shape that good companies could make money in this environment… I can’t tell you it’s going to go up as much as it has, but it should remain fruitful for investors until it begins to sniff out a recession.”
Recession-Spotting
With the thousands of economic metrics and formulas available, Webman believes the best economic indicator of an imminent recession is very simple.
“The stock market is better than any of the economic indicators you can look at.” However, he went on to issue a warning to stock traders: “If you’re in it for the long-term, it’s dangerous to try to time markets.”
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