In a note released on Friday morning, O’Neil Securities Director Kenny Polcari discussed the state of the U.S. stock market and next week’s critical U.S. GDP number. Polcari believes that the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will be reporting a strong GDP number next week, one way or another.

New Method

San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams recently described the convoluted new method the U.S. used to calculate Q1 GDP. “To get a measure that avoids seasonal patterns, SF Fed economists ran a second round of seasonal adjustment, not just on GDP, but on gross domestic income (GDI) and something called GDP Plus, a new measure of economy-wide activity that combines GDP and GDI and strips out the extraneous noise.

“After making this modification for recurring seasonal patterns, the data show GDP actually grew about 1.5 percent in the first quarter,” Williams explained.

Cooking The Numbers?

According to Polcari, the new “convenient” GDP adjustment method allows…

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