In a new report, UBS economist Maury Harris discusses the outlook for U.S. economic growth. After a bumpy year so far in China and a volatile August for global stock prices, Harris sees mixed signals from the U.S. economy heading into what could be the beginning of a new Federal Reserve tightening cycle.

The Bad News

The ISM survey of manufacturers indicated disappointing growth in the manufacturing sector, but positive growth nonetheless. “The slowing pace of expansion comes on the back of stronger durable goods orders and an overall growing sense of optimism around the sector,” Harris adds.

He explains that some of the weakness in the reported numbers was likely due to a drop in export orders, and some of it may be the result of fear related to the selloff in equity markets.

The Good News

The U.S. economy saw…

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