We Currently Face A 20% Chance Of Recession

In a new report, Morgan Stanley analyst Ellen Zentner discussed the chances that the United States is on the verge of a recession. According to Zentner, market fears that a recession is imminent might be overblown.

“We first introduced a 2016 recession scenario in our Bear case in September 2015, assigning it a 20 percent probability,” she explained. “That assessment still feels about right.”

Digging Deeper

Despite forecasting only a one in five chance of a general recession, Zentner noted that the U.S. industrial segment, which represents about 10 percent of the overall economy, is already in a recession.

Although Morgan Stanley doesn’t see a recession coming this year, the firm’s 1.8 percent projected Q4/Q4 GDP growth rate is…

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